Middle East Crisis Continues Apace

• EGYPT

The war against the terrorists in the Sinai that was to be conducted by Egypt recently has fizzled. Perhaps it was indeed only a headline intended to get permission from the Israelis for an significant increase of troops and tanks into Sinai. That was indeed the outcome. However, Israel still must defend its border with Egypt at Sinai as a defense line against enemy incursion. While only some of the terrorists involved in the previous attack near Eilat were Egyptian soldiers, it’s not unlikely that on this pretext or that, an Egyptian unit could attack across the border. Hamas and Al Qaeda roam freely there with large outposts in the mountains. Given the harsh terrain, Egypt couldn’t have cleared out those terrorists anyway.

However, Israel is in a more precarious position now. If it responds against Egyptian military (and some WERE killed in the lsat attack) there would be a grave international incident. Following the ‘paid’ protest and ransacking of the Israeli Embassy, the military rulers are on notice that they cannot conduct business as usual with Israel. They are also on notice that the Islamic Brotherhood and other radical groups intend to take over Egypt. For that reason there has been some rearrest of free extremists and the military rulers are not being accused of “Mubarak-like” illegal arrests. There is unlikely to be any stability in Egypt for the foreseeable future and this means that terror groups will take root there. Saudi Arabia has already taken over as leader of the Arab world. Iran will fight against any influence of moderation and will empower Shi’ite terrorists on any battlefield, political or actual.

• SYRIA

Nothing has changed except that the number of demonstrators willing to brave death in the streets has significantly decreased. While Saudi Arabia is still backing the rebels, Iran has taken an active hand in Assad’s strategy, knowing full well they are not only fighting for Assad but against Sunni incursion into their territory and Iran’s continuous access for Hezbollah. Until Erdogan’s little confab with Obama, he was sort of leaning toward what he perceived to be the winning side: Assad. So, though he is now joining the weapons embargo against Assad, he could very well switch sides again if Obama forgets to grease his palms sufficiently.

One point of interest is Turkey’s break with Iran as made clear by it’s break with Assad. Since both Turkey and Iran have been fighting the Kurdish separatists, their cooperation on that front has been fruitful….up to and including US assistance provided to Turkey having the ‘intended or not’ effect of supporting Iranian attacks on the Kurds in Iran & Iraq. The war against the Kurds is quite likely to be a bargaining chip for Obama with both Turkey and Iran, this possibly influencing the support (or not) of the Syrian president. With Saudi supplying support and arms to the Syrian rebels and with the US, Turkey and Iran negotiating around the edges, the Syrians will continue unimpeded in their slaughter.

• LIBYA

There is so much propaganda covering this civil war, that it’s unlikely that even the western intelligence services have a handle on it. One day the rebels claim to have conquered a Qaddafi city, the next day they are asking NATO to bomb it for him. Perhaps they credit most of the world with dementia: Maybe they won’t remember the headlines of yesterday when they see today’s?

Where is Qaddafi? What WMD are the rebels claiming to have found? That in itself shouldn’t be surprising. Qaddafi was working hand in glove with Saddam Hussein to develop WMD and a nuclear bomb IN LIBYA. Qaddafi then claimed to stand down and give it all to the US at the beginning of the Iraqi invasion, but who knows? He probably saved some for a special occasion. (Syria is likely to have some of those, too. Is THAT one reason NATO isn’t bombing Assad’s territory?)

• SAUDI ARABIA

It’s a good thing Saudi Arabia has a lot of Princes: They are spread pretty thin just now. They have set up a replacement for the old Arab League, usurping some of Egypt’s centrality in Arab Affairs. They are protecting the throne of their new state, Bahrain, and they are funding and arming the rebels in Syria to gain a toe hold there while poking Iran in the eye in both situations. Yemen is an open sore on their border and they are doing their best to get control of the political machine there. Lacking cooperation from the ruling family, a little coercion has been in order.

Saudi’s King has made it clear to Obama that, while they don’t trust the US and are making moves to provide for their own defense, they will cooperate when it suits their needs. And this it does, in Yemen. Saudi Arabia has approved a new and updated CIA station near their border with Yemen in order to control Al Qaeda. This will give the Saudi’s a freer hand in bringing at least a critical part of Yemen, if not all of it, into their orbit.

• IRAN

The faded Prince Ahmadinejad came to New York. While he framed his usual lies with his usual vitriol, his royal robes are gone and the world has noticed. The Ayatolas are retaking control and soon, with the coming elections, another will take his place. It will be interesting to see if Obama’s overtures (some of which were able to turn the Prince’s head) will be able to convince the Ayatolas. Stopping nuclear bomb development no longer seems to interest Obama who wants to be seen a ‘partner’ of Iran. However, so far, his ideas for cooperation are been rejected out of hand: What they demand, he cannot supply. For starters, they want the Saudi’s out of Bahrain. Since Obama can no longer tell the Saudi King what to do, it seems he is back at square one.

Much is being made of the implementation of the delivery of bunker busters bombs (so-called) by the US to Israel. These are ostensibly for bombing Iran’s nuclear development sites. Initially (when first ordered), they might have been effective for that. However, the conclusions seem to be that they can’t go deep enough to penetrate the really important mountain caves in use now. In any case, when it was crucial for the first shipment to arrive, it was diverted by Obama to punish Israel for not doing as he wanted. (Does the US administration — in now publishing this really “PRO-ISRAEL” delivery — really think no one will remember that?) So, it’s doubtful Iran is now very worried about these bombs.